The compromise peace agreement and its potential political repercussions: The south Sudan armed conflict just concluded in what the IGAD plus mediators called the compromised peace agreement would be a game changer (to many politicians across the whole country and particularly the war torn Upper Nile region) for better or for worse as the case may be.
During the war people were divided between the pro government and pro rebels camps with two different narratives as the reasons for prosecuting the war. While, the government side claimed they are fighting in order to defend the elected government from a rebellious coup plotters bent on overthrowing the government, the other camp notably the rebels vehemently refuted the coup narrative arguing they are defending themselves from a vicious and deadly dictator that has gone wild killing everybody within his reached in a move to silence his critics.
Eventually, the two camps sets goals for themselves that must be achieved as a matter of necessity if the war is to be effectively fought to it successful conclusion. However, as might be expected the government fought for the total annihilation of the rebels so that a new paradigm shift is set in the wake of the rebel defeat.
On the other hand, the rebels conducted the war with a single objective in mind namely removing from power the president and installed a government that would correct the country ills, set the country in the correct path and ultimately change the lives of its people to the better according to this grand objective.
Unfortunately, the two camps fell short of achieving their targets in spite of the government employing all tactics as well as emplacing various weapons which among others include the most sophisticated and the most lethal weaponry it could purchase from the world military establishment, yet the rebels were not annihilated as planned instead other rebellions begun to emerge across the country.
Similarly, the rebels though active and nearly reached Juba in the first days of the rebellion could not achieved its target either, instead it encounter serious setbacks in the battlefield culminating into overrunning of its several positions in the greater Upper Nile region. In addition, the rebels were also decimated by internal splits from within its rank and file.
Now that peace is signed with neither sides achieving their final goals and a new political dispensation is likely to be put in place as part of the deal concluded in Addis Ababa. Apparently, the war will have its potential winners and potential losers across the political divide.
The government supporters who hail from the Dinka community would be view as heroes by their constituencies because they managed to keep the rebels at bay denying them the opportunity to set foot on Dinka territories only for minor encounters while keeping the war and its associated havoc in the areas of Nuer and shilluk communities. On the contrary, government supporters from both the Nuer and shilluk communities would be branded as betrayers and traitors by their communities simply because they had been used against their own people.
Likewise, on the rebels side the Nuer, Shilluk and other communities members who are non Dinka would be consider as heroes in the eyes of their communities because they are believed to have emancipated these communities from the bondage of Jieng domination who for all intend and purposes want to rule the country through iron fist. While, the rebels members of Jieng descend would be categorize as sell out who compromise Jieng unity in pursuit of their individual self interests as well as satisfying their personal egos at the expense of their people.
Whatever the naming this peace would discharge, it is no doubt the end of this war will change the country political landscape so that it would not again be business as usual for the political players on both sides. Surely, others would reap the benefit of this war as others would be left in the cold in spite of the enormous sacrifices they have made in the name of each of the two opposing camps.
James Pui Yak can be reached at email@example.com