Articles & Analyses

Momentary Analysis for Proposed Compromise Agreement on IGAD Plus Resolution of the conflict in Republic of South Sudan

By Hon. James Maluit Ruach

[dropcap]A[/dropcap]nalyses:- (Omaha, Nebraska, USA). The nature of proposed compromise agreement on the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) plus resolution of the conflict in the Republic of South Sudan is a road map to bring peace to war torn nation of South Sudan, but the warring parties to the conflict should be negotiating in good faith so as to reached compromising agreement by August 17, 2015 as pressures ascend on the parties to the conflict.

The IGAD road map which comprises of the 8 subsequent classifications are being identified as the formation of Transitional Government of National Unity (TGONU); the establishment of Permanent Ceasefire and Transitional Security Arrangements (PCTSA); the creation of Humanitarian Assistance and Reconstruction (HAR); the launching of Resource, Economic and Financial Management (REFM); the conception of Transitional Justice, Accountability, Reconciliation and Healing (TJARH); the preparation of Parameters of permanent Constitution (POPC); the formation of joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (JMEC) and finally, the implementation of supremacy of this agreement and procedures for Amendment of the Agreement. The above mentioned 8 points IGAD Peace plan have sounded very well that the peace can be achieved any time soon in the hard hit country, but the questions are reliably on the Warring parties’ replications and commitment to the Proposed Compromise agreement on the IGAD plus resolution of the conflict in the Republic of South Sudan. The notion to the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development(IGAD) Plus – includes Algeria, Chad, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa, African Union Representative, European Union Representative, United Nations Representative, United States of America Representative, United Kingdom Representative, Kingdom of Norway Representative and People’s Republic of China Representative have proposed compromise agreement which is to try and want to bring the durable peace settlement to the divided nation that was torn apart. The Political dispute between the President and the Vice president has put the country back to naught where over 20,000 Nuer unarmed and other numerous Civil Population were killed and massacred by the Private presidential Guards on December 15-20, 2015 in Juba, South Sudan.

The Republic of South Sudan conflict which has been going on for over 20 Months has seriously devastated and destroyed the whole greater Upper States of Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile infrastructures respectively beyond the recognition. It was also displaced the entire communities’ civil population within the region and beyond South Sudan borders. The war has been also promptly escalating to the greater Equatoria and Bahr el Ghazal in which many civil populations have been also internally displaced sequentially and respectively. The whole young Nation is now fighting the war of identity crisis to itself. In the Political arena around the global, there is no sitting president like Kiir who can start igniting the fight by ordering the mass killing and massacring his own citizens in cold-blood. Mr. Kiir has commenced the killing of his own people by ordering his Private Presidential Guards. Mr. President continual invitation of Uganda UPDF- Military, Sudan Rebels allied groups and other Militia forces fighting alongside his government has been prolonging the war in the country. The most four important points that I think the IGAD Plus led peace Plan could be possibly holding the water to bring back the tranquility to the war torn country of South Sudan if the warring parties should have to agreed upon are the formation of Transitional Government of National unity; the conception of Transitional Justice, Accountability, Reconciliation and healing; the establishment of permanent Ceasefire & Transitional Security Arrangement and the creation of Humanitarian Assistance & Reconstruction.

  1. The Modality on the formation of Transitional Government of National Unity (TGONU).

The power sharing ratio with respect to Leadership Executive Structures, Mandate and compositions on the Transitional National Government Unity should be deeply and carefully examined by the parties to conflict. This area should be given the vigilant determination for the leadership arrangements and the distributions of important ministerial seats to the two main warring parties and other opposition parties to avoid the repeated political dispute within the parties and other oppositions in the country.

Transitional Government of National Unity (TGONU) Power Sharing Ratio: The power sharing ratio in the TGONU Executive Body, which was proposed by the IGAD plus peace plan as 53% ( GRSS), 33% (SPLM/A-IO) and 14% (Opposition & Others) should cheerfully be stated in the Executive body as 40% (GRSS), 40% (SPLM/A-IO), 20% (Oppositions and others) respectively. This Area above mentioned has been the source of the problems during the previous Transitional Government of National Unity in the country where one community like greater Bahr el Ghazal was almost dominated the entire civil services positions up 95%, Controlling ministerial Posts was up to 85% and taking up Military senior positions was to 98%. Whereas the other Nationalities and communities in the country only held 5% (Civil Services posts), 15% (Ministerial Posts) and 2% (Military Senior posts). This is one of root cases, which brought back the country into the current conflict today, because the people were an unable to receive the government services deliverance in their respectively communities such as education, health, livelihood, safe drinking water and others. The TGONU Executive Body should be divided equally between the two main warring parties to the conflict while the quarter percentages (%) should be given to Oppositions and other Parties in the Country so that the nation diversity can be reflected in the future upcoming Transitional Government of National Unity and not only that, but also to correct the mistakes of the pass once again and for all.

Greater Upper Nile Power sharing Ratio: The IGAD Plus peace plan on power sharing ratio of 53% (SPLM/A-IO), 33%(GRSS) and 14%(Opposition & Others) in Greater Upper Nile states (Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile) have been widely accepted by the Greater Upper Nile Communities and the SPLM/A-IO around the globe, but the Government (GRSS) has been freshly rejected the proposal on the social media outlets without the proper explanation to the public except the question of controlling the Oil in greater Upper Nile States.

Greater Equatoria and greater Bahr el Ghazal Power Sharing Ratio: The IGAD peace plan on power sharing ratio of 100% from greater Equatoria and greater Bahr el Ghazal given to GRSS will fuel the continuation of the conflict in the two greater regions. The war will further the devastation of the those two above mentioned regional infrastructures more like greater upper Nile region and will create more internally displaced Persons (IDPs) like greater Upper Nile three devastated states. The Recommendations which could hold the water if approve is that the IGAD Plus peace plan on power sharing ratio should incorporate Greater Equatoria and greater Bahr el Ghazal into power sharing ration of 53% (GRSS), 33% (SPLM/A-IO) and 14% (Opposition & Others) so as to stop and avoid continue the SPLM/A- IO Military activities currently going on in the two regions. If this proposal should be incorporated into the agreement, it will be extensively welcomed and accepted by the Greater Equatoria and Bahr El Ghazal Communities, SPLM/A-IO leadership and the peace loving communities alike regionally, so that the hopes bringing back the peace and harmony to South Sudan as whole eventually would be realized.

  1. Transitional Justice, Accountability, Reconciliation and Healing.

The conception of transitional Justice, accountability, reconciliation and healing is one of the vital part of the proposed compromise IGAD peace Plan. The issues of root causes, accountabilities of individuals who have been committed the crimes against humanity, human rights violation and abuses, Compensations of the Victim families and properties lost in Juba, greater Upper states of Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile respectively should be properly addressed by the warring parties and the IGAD Plus peace Plan partners. The mandate for the transitional Justice, accountability, reconciliation and healing will be depending eventually on the early establishment of the proposed commissions of Hybrid Court for South Sudan (HCSS); Compensation & Reparation Authority (CRA) and Commission for Truth, Reconciliation and Healing (CTRH) respectively. The reconciliation and healing for the entire nation mandate can be only comprehended when the legitimate bodies of those commissions kick off. The implementation mandate of transitional Justice will be also depended on the fully participations of the African Union, the United Nations and the African Commission on Human and People’s Rights to help the TGONU on designing and facilitating the work of the agreed transitional Justice mechanisms which has been provided on the proposed compromise agreement to ease the part of the challenges on the implementation segment.

  1. Permanent Ceasefire and Transitional Security Arrangements.

The establishment of permanent ceasefire and transitional Security arrangement is the most important main key to the Government of Republic of South Sudan (GRSS) and the SPLM/A-IO to reach the peace agreement. The establishment phase on the ceasefire will be depending on the quick withdrawal of foreign troops and allied Militia forces mostly who have been fighting alongside the government in the country such as Uganda UDPF soldiers and Sudan Rebels allied Groups who have been deeply fueling the conflict in the Country. Meanwhile, the SPLM/A-IO Rebel side, the White Army will be easily detached and will be going back to their respective inhabitants in the greater Upper Nile states rapidly when the main regular Army disengage. The Transitional Security arrangement can be implemented when the permanent Ceasefire agreement will has been reached and executed by the warring parties and the international Communities. The security arrangement agreement would be worked out and will make an impact only when the warring parties fighting forces are being separated and assembly quickly after the signing of IGAD Plus peace Plan. The mandate of all those arrangements and agreements should be guaranteed when the African Union and the United Nation keeping forces would have been deployed in the Country.

  1. Humanitarian Assistance and Reconstruction

The creation of humanitarian Relief on the proposed compromise agreement of IGAD lead peace plan is an imperative on the WFP and other NGOS humanitarian delivery to the needy people. The International and National NGOs operating in the country will be able accessed and reached the IDPs and other civil populations who have not been vulnerably reached in the nation especially UNMISS Camps, greater Upper Nile, Equatoria and Bahr el Ghazal regions respectively. As it was mentioned in the proposed Compromise agreement that the TGONU, in collaboration and support of international partners and friends of South Sudan, shall establish a Special Fund for Reconstruction (SRF) within the first (one) month of the Transition, to be administered by the Board of Special Reconstruction Fund (BSRF), comprising of membership drawn from the TGONU and international partners of South Sudan. These reconstruction funds in turn will ultimately improve the overall infrastructures particularly in the most devastated upper Nile states of Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile.

Finally, my brief analysis with respect to the Proposed Compromise agreement on IGAD plus resolution of the conflict in the Republic of South Sudan ultimately would be 750% chance that the peace agreement between the warring parties will be signed on August 17, 2015. The south Sudanese communities around the global want tranquility in the young nation. The African regional body and the international Community’s communal pressures on South Sudan warring parties including the United States of America have been increasing on a daily basis. Though, the government in Juba has been verbally discarded some of the segments in the propose compromise agreement in particular the greater upper Nile states power sharing proportion, but there should be no reason to explain it in-depth as why the peace should not be signed. The failure of not signing the proposed compromise agreement will not only risk the United Nation led united states tough sanction of economic, Arm embargo and individually freezing of assets against the country, but the warring parties will also risk the African and the regional isolations sooner or later.

The Author of this article is Hon. James Maluit Ruach, Executive Director for Wellspring Missions and Former Fangak County Commissioner. He can be reached at maluit2004@gmail.com

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